Important March Madness bracket update for Wednesday, March 20th, 2024
Pick #3 Kentucky over #2 Marquette to advance to the Elite 8 in the South region
As I promised in yesterday’s bracket reveal, I’m writing to let you know of a change to the 2024 Optimal Bracket, and it’s an important one: pick #3 Kentucky to win over #2 Marquette to advance to the Elite 8 in the South region. There are no other changes to the Optimal Bracket at this time.
I’ll do one last data update tomorrow (Thursday) morning, so keep an eye out for a message in your inbox in the event of any further changes. If you don’t receive anything from me, assume no change and that the bracket is good to go for the tournament!
Here’s the full updated bracket screenshot with the one change mentioned above:
Why #3 Kentucky over #2 Marquette?
For context, I use two sets of underlying data:
Yahoo Pick Distribution - this helps me understand what percentage of brackets are picking which teams. This is important because we need to be different enough from other brackets in our pool. There’s no way to know for sure what your pool will look like, but it’s a reasonable assumption that it will look largely like the broader population (that said, if you’re in a pool with a lot of alums/fans of a particular school, fade them! It’s the easiest way to differentiate your bracket without much downside.)
Nate Silver’s March Madness predictions (heads up: full data behind $8/mo paywall) - this is what I use as my source of truth for the mathematical probabilities a team is to make it to each round. It’s (more or less) the same model he used while he was at FiveThirtyEight, which is the source I used to great success the past few years.
So what changed?
Based on my records, it doesn’t look like the Yahoo Pick Distribution changed all that much - people are still picking Marquette and Kentucky at about the same rate as they did before.
Instead, it looks like Nate Silver’s predictions changed. When I first pulled the data on Monday, he gave Marquette the following chances of making it to each round:
91% chance of reaching Round of 32
63% chance of reaching Sweet 16
37% chance of reaching Elite 8
16% chance of reaching Final Four
7% chance of reaching the Championship game
3% chance of winning it all
As of last night’s data update, here are the new chances he gives Marquette in the tournament:
84% chance of reaching Round of 32
48% chance of reaching Sweet 16
29% chance of reaching Elite 8
13% chance of reaching Final Four
6% chance of reaching the Championship game
2% chance of winning it all
Those are pretty big changes! Why the changes?
The data most likely changed due to injuries, a key calculation in Nate Silver’s model. Marquette heavily relies on Tyler Kolek, their star guard who suffered an oblique injury against Providence on February 28 and has missed six straight games.
Marquette’s head coach Shaka Smart said on Selection Sunday that "The plan is for him to play," Smart said. "But he's got to go through a progression this week. And so once we get back on the practice court, we'll be able to continue that progression."
It’s unlikely that prognosis has changed in the last day, but rather I suspect Nate Silver’s data is just catching up to that update.
It’s also possible that the injury prognosis for other players for Marquette worsened, the injury outlook of Marquette’s potential opponents on its path through the tournament improved, or both.
Either way, for now, pick #3 Kentucky over #2 Marquette to advance in the South.
This could revert tomorrow as data continues to be updated! As such, be sure to subscribe to get notified of any last-minute updates tomorrow morning:
While you’re here…
Join my bracket pool
Think you can beat my Optimal Bracket? Come play in my “David Glidden’s Just for Fun” bracket pool on ESPN. You (think you) have the advantage insofar as you know what my bracket will look like!
Bet (play money) on all things March Madness
I’m very active on Manifold, a free play-money prediction site. It’s a ton of fun to be able to “bet” on all the games without actually having to worry about losing money, and even create your own prediction markets for other people to bet on!
Check out the March Madness 2024 dashboard where you can bet on everything from all 69 games to the tournament winner and even prop bets like whether a player will be ejected or whether we’ll get a true buzzer beater.
It’s a lot of fun - I look forward to seeing you bet against me there! (You can also message me there using their messaging feature for any bracket advice or musings.)
