Glad you like it! I don’t share my sheet anymore because it uses Silver’s data that is now behind a paywall now that he’s no longer at FiveThirtyEight 😭
Value of pick = (1 - Pct of Poolpick) * Pct Chance of Winningpick * Point Value Round
So for a team that has a 20% of winning the title but is picked by 15% of the crowd, and you get 320 points for a correct title winner (ie ESPN scoring), the value of picking that team would be: (1-0.20)*0.15*320 =38.4
Do that for every combination of teams and games. Then work backwards, picking the best value for the title winner, then the best value for the runner up, then for the remaining two Final Four teams, and so on and so forth until the bracket is completed.
This is great. Do you have a link or download of your sheet you used to calculate leverage/compare Silver to public?
Glad you like it! I don’t share my sheet anymore because it uses Silver’s data that is now behind a paywall now that he’s no longer at FiveThirtyEight 😭
But, the value calculation can be found on my original article from 2018: https://dglid.medium.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-filling-out-your-bracket-for-march-madness-9e7d76f16449
Tl;dr:
Value of pick = (1 - Pct of Poolpick) * Pct Chance of Winningpick * Point Value Round
So for a team that has a 20% of winning the title but is picked by 15% of the crowd, and you get 320 points for a correct title winner (ie ESPN scoring), the value of picking that team would be: (1-0.20)*0.15*320 =38.4
Do that for every combination of teams and games. Then work backwards, picking the best value for the title winner, then the best value for the runner up, then for the remaining two Final Four teams, and so on and so forth until the bracket is completed.
I use Yahoo now for crowd pick %s: https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/mens-basketball-bracket/pickdistribution